Assumptions Map

An Assumptions Map is a tool that helps identify, organize, and evaluate the hidden beliefs and suppositions that guide your decisions and actions. Think of it like creating an inventory of the invisible thoughts running in the background of your mind - those “facts” you’ve never questioned but that quietly shape how you see yourself, others, and the world around you.

Unlike the chaotic swirl of thoughts in your head, an Assumptions Map brings structure to this mental landscape. It allows you to systematically examine each assumption, score it based on how much evidence supports it and how important it is to your life, then decide which ones deserve your attention for testing or challenging.

The tool transforms abstract, often unconscious beliefs into concrete, manageable items you can work with. Rather than being controlled by assumptions you don’t even realize you hold, you become the conscious curator of your own thinking patterns.

The effectiveness of an Assumptions Map is maximized when it is focused on a specific, meaningful goal, project, or decision. This central objective can be termed the “Quest.” Vague wishes like “be happier” are too broad to be effectively analyzed. Instead, the Quest should be a concrete endeavor that can be treated as a project, with its own set of underlying beliefs and required actions.

Examples of well-defined Quests include:

• Career Change: “My Quest is to successfully transition from my current role in finance to a new career as a data scientist.”
• Entrepreneurial Venture: “My Quest is to launch a profitable side business selling handmade leather goods on Etsy.”
• Personal Health Goal: “My Quest is to complete my first half-marathon within the next nine months.”
• Relationship Improvement: “My Quest is to re-establish a strong, communicative relationship with my estranged sibling over the next year.”

Framing the goal in this way provides the necessary boundaries for the subsequent brainstorming and analysis.

Conduct an exhaustive brainstorm of every belief, hope, fear, expectation, and perceived fact related to it. At this stage, the objective is to generate a high quantity of assumptions without premature judgment or filtering. The use of physical or digital sticky notes is highly recommended, as they allow for easy manipulation and categorization in later steps. Each note should contain a single, distinct assumption.

To structure this process and shift your mindset, frame each belief using the “I believe that…” format. This phrasing transforms a statement of perceived fact into a testable hypothesis. It introduces a subtle but critical mental distance, moving from “This is how it is” to “This is a belief I hold, and it might be incorrect.”

For example:

• Instead of “Data scientists earn a lot,” the statement becomes: “I believe that I can secure a starting salary of at least $90,000 as a data scientist in my city.”
• Instead of “I’ll have enough time,” the statement becomes: “I believe that I can realistically dedicate 8-10 hours per week to training for the half-marathon without compromising my work or family responsibilities.”
• Instead of “People will like my products,” the statement becomes: “I believe that a target audience of young professionals is willing to pay a premium for high-quality, handmade leather goods.”

You can expand your assumptions by investigating your Quest from three different lenses: Desirability, Viability, and Feasibility.

Desirability (The “Want”)

Do I truly want this?

It probes the human, emotional, and value-based alignment of the goal. Desirability goes beyond surface-level attractions (like salary or status) to explore deep, intrinsic motivation and the day-to-day reality of the Quest.

Examples:

• I believe that this path aligns with my most important core values (e.g., creativity, autonomy, service).
• I believe that I will genuinely enjoy the daily tasks and activities involved in this Quest.
• I believe that achieving this goal will bring me a profound sense of fulfillment, pride, and meaning.
• I believe that the person I will have to become to achieve this goal is a person I want to be.

Viability (The “Sustainability”)

Is this sustainable for my life as a whole?

It serves as a practical, logistical, and long-term reality check. Viability is about whether the Quest can be integrated into your life without causing significant disruption.

Examples:

• I believe that I can financially afford the required investment (e.g., tuition, equipment, lost income).
• I believe that the goal is worth the time and energy it will demand, even considering what I must give up.
• I believe that my key relationships (partner, family, friends) will be supportive of this endeavor.
• I believe that this Quest has a sustainable business model or a positive long-term impact on my life’s trajectory.

Feasibility (The “Can”)

Can I actually do this?

It is concerned with your capabilities, skills, knowledge, and resources, as well as the external factors that might enable or block success. It’s an honest assessment of whether you possess or can acquire the necessary components for the Quest.

Examples:

• I believe that I currently possess the core skills and strengths needed to succeed.
• I believe that I can learn the necessary new skills within a reasonable timeframe.
• I believe that I have access to the required tools, technology, and resources.
• I believe that there are no unbeatable external barriers (e.g., legal requirements, market saturation, physical limitations).

Create a visual map in form of 2x2 matrix. The vertical (Y-axis) represents importance, with “Unimportant” at the bottom and “Important” at the top. The horizontal (X-axis) represents evidence, with “Low Evidence” on the left and “High Evidence” on the right.

Organizing the assumptions isn’t a mechanical sorting task but a “mapping conversation” with oneself or trusted people. For each assumption, two critical questions must be asked to determine its position on the grid:

To determine vertical placement (importance):

• How critical is this belief to the success of my Quest?
• If I am wrong about this, would the entire project fail or be fundamentally undermined?

To determine horizontal placement (evidence):

• What hard, verifiable proof do I have that this belief is true?
• Is it a documented fact, a personal experience I can validate, or is it a gut feeling, an opinion from a friend, something I read in an article once, or just wishful thinking?

This is a relative exercise. It is often easier to place assumptions in relation to one another by asking, “Is this belief more or less important than that one? Do I have more or less evidence for this one compared to that one?”. This comparative approach helps create a more accurate and useful map.

Once all assumptions are plotted, the map reveals a clear strategic path forward. Each of the four quadrants corresponds to a different type of belief and requires a distinct course of action.

Leap of Faith (High Importance, Low Evidence)

These are the beliefs that are critical to your success but for which you have little to no proof. See them as your riskiest assumptions and highest priority. Your mission is to design small, fast experiments to gather evidence and determine if they are true or false.

Strategic Foundation (High Importance, High Evidence)

These are the known facts and validated beliefs that your Quest is built upon. See them as your strengths and certainties. Your mission is to ensure they are explicitly incorporated into your strategic plan and leveraged for success.

The “Wait and See” (Low Importance, Low Evidence)

These are unknowns that are unlikely to derail your Quest even if they turn out to be false. They don’t require immediate attention. Your mission is to either ignore them for now or, if you are curious, conduct some light, low-effort research to learn more.

Background Noise (Low Importance, High Evidence)

These are known facts that are not critical to the success of your Quest. Acknowledge them but don’t spend significant time on them. Your mission is to simply be aware of them and periodically check if their importance has changed.

The process of testing assumptions involves designing and conducting small-scale “life experiments.” The first step is to convert a belief from the map into a formal, testable hypothesis. This structure clarifies what is being tested and what a successful outcome looks like. For example:

• Assumption: I believe that I would enjoy the day-to-day work of a landscape designer.
• Hypothesis: If I volunteer for a weekend project helping a friend design and build a garden bed, then I will feel energized and engaged by the work.

The key to effective experimentation is to design tests that are small, fast, and cheap, providing the maximum amount of learning for the minimum investment of time and money. Examples are:

To test Desirability:

• Conduct “informational interviews” with three professionals in the target field to understand the realities of their job.
• Follow five influential figures in the industry on social media for a month to immerse in the culture and conversation.
• Complete a short, project-based online course or a weekend workshop to get a hands-on feel for the work.

To test Viability:

• Create a detailed personal budget for the next six months, modeling the financial impact of the Quest.
• Have a structured conversation with a partner or family member about the time and energy commitments required.
• Use a time-tracking app for one week to identify exactly where the hours for the new project will come from.

To test Feasibility:

• Attempt to complete a core task of the desired profession (e.g., write a simple program, design a basic logo, draft a marketing plan for a fictional product).
• Research and outline the specific costs, timelines, and prerequisites for any necessary certifications or training.
• Identify and reach out to three potential clients for a hypothetical side hustle to gauge interest and test the ability to market oneself.

Creating and interpreting the map in isolation can simply reinforce your biases, particularly confirmation bias (favoring supportive information) and the false consensus effect (overestimating how much others agree with you).

To counter it, share the completed map with a trusted friend, mentor, or coach. During the experimentation phase, actively seek out disconfirming evidence. Ask questions like, “What is the strongest argument against my goal?” or “Who is someone that tried this and failed? Why?”.

You can become so focused on creating a “perfect” map that you never move to the crucial action and experimentation phase.

To counter it, impose a time limit on the mapping exercise, such as 60-90 minutes. The goal is not an exhaustive and flawless document, but a map that is “good enough” to identify the first one or two critical experiments. Progress over perfection is the guiding principle.

Aversion to using information or ideas from outside sources and an over-attachment to your own assumptions. This can lead to rejecting new evidence from experiments if it contradicts your cherished belief (the backfire effect).

To counter it, adopt a mindset of “strong opinions, weakly held”. Treat every assumption on the map as a temporary hypothesis to be rigorously tested, not a truth to be defended. The goal of an experiment is to find the truth, not to be right.

You focus only on the successful examples (the “survivors”) and ignore the vast number of people who failed. Your map is based on the highlight reels of others, not the full picture.

To counter it, actively seek out stories of failure. Search for “Why I quit being a [target profession]” or “The hardest part about [target goal].” This provides a more balanced set of assumptions to map. You read more in a note about the Survivorship Bias.

The Assumptions Map is not a static, one-time artifact. It is a dynamic, living document that must evolve as new information is gathered. As experiments are conducted, uncertainty is reduced, and assumptions will move across the map.

To get the best effect, revisit and update the map at regular intervals or key milestones:

• After completing a significant life experiment.
• Whenever a feeling of being “stuck” or uncertain arises.
• At pre-scheduled intervals for long-term Quests, such as every 3-6 months.

This practice ensures that the Assumptions Map remains an accurate and relevant guide throughout the entire journey of pursuing a goal.