Pre-Mortem

A pre-mortem is a mental technique where you imagine that a project, decision, or plan has already failed spectacularly, then work backwards to identify what could have caused the failure. Unlike a post-mortem, which analyzes what went wrong after the fact, pre-mortem flips the script, anticipating pitfalls before they derail your efforts.

The technique was developed by psychologist Gary Klein in 2007, who drew inspiration from medical post-mortems where doctors analyze what led to a patient’s death to improve future treatment. Klein realized that this same investigative approach could be applied proactively to prevent failure rather than just understand it after the fact.

Find a quiet spot where you won’t be interrupted. Gather a notebook or open a blank document. Set aside a specific time for the analysis (length should depend on the complexity of the project or decision). Clearly explain the plan, timeline, and objectives to clarify what you’re evaluating.

Close your eyes and imagine you’re looking back from a specific point in the future - whether that’s six months, one year, or many years from now. In this imagined future, the project has failed completely. It’s not just struggling or facing challenges; it’s an absolute disaster. Notice what feelings arise (frustration, disappointment, confusion) and what you see around you (missed deadlines, budget overruns, stress).

Write down every possible reason why the project failed so catastrophically. Encourage specific, detailed explanations rather than vague concerns. Instead of “lack of focus,” aim for “I let distractions like social media and streaming services steal my focus every afternoon”.

Collect all the failure scenarios and analyze them. Look for patterns and prioritize the most likely or most damaging possibilities. Ask yourself:

• Which of these would derail everything if they happened?
• Which have tripped me up in past projects?

This creates a comprehensive risk inventory that might never emerge in traditional planning sessions. Circle or star the top risks so you can focus your energy where it matters most.

For the highest-priority risks, create specific action plans to prevent or mitigate them. Ask yourself:

• What can I do to prevent this from happening?
• What can I do to mitigate the impact if it does happen?

Transform your findings into a list of actionable steps to perform along the way and if-then statements to guide your behavior is some risks materialize.

Don’t let fear dominate you. A pre-mortem can be incredibly powerful, but used without balance it may also lead to undue anxiety or second-guessing. Keep these points in mind:

• Avoid Overthinking. Dwelling too long on every tiny possibility can stall decision-making. Once you’ve identified and prevented top risks, move forward.
• Stay Solution-Focused. Don’t just list problems. Commit to your action steps rather than revisiting failure scenarios endlessly.
• Mind Your Mindset. If you find yourself consumed by negative “what-ifs,” pause and remind yourself that the goal is preparation, not pessimism for its own sake.
• Adjust the Intensity. For small projects, shorten your pre-mortem to 10-15 minutes. For major life decisions, allow more time, but set a firm end point so worry doesn’t creep in.

• Career Decisions
  Before accepting a job offer, imagine yourself a year later regretting the decision. What would have made it go wrong? Perhaps the company culture doesn’t match your values, the role lacks growth opportunities, or the commute proves unsustainable.

• Personal Projects
  Planning a major home renovation? Imagine it becoming a nightmare scenario. The budget might spiral out of control, contractors could disappear mid-project, or permit issues could cause months of delays.

• Financial Planning
  Before making major investments or purchases, imagine scenarios where they become disasters. This might reveal risks you hadn’t considered or help you build appropriate safeguards.